Dkp system is cancer - change my mind

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Originally Posted by Drunkuser

As I said earlier, folks here against /roll have no idea how statistics and probability work, so it's a lost cause argoument.

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And that's where you're completely wrong. The majority of people choose DKP over RNG because it is rewarding time and effort put into a guild. Those who carry are being rewarded with guaranteed loot over time while your dice can fail you for months or even years. You can and will lose tons of gear to people who barely ever show up or are completely new, possibly leaving you in the dust after getting what they want. Your math and statistics won't change anything about that fact.

Theres people out there pugging it out for years and still don't have their BiS gear. Compare that to a proper guild with DKP where the core raiders have multiple BiS geared characters in much less time.

One thing I agree with tho. This is a lost cause argument.

I am done here :D this is insane .. its really like someone in this thread wrote that , this is compered to when FLAT EARTHERS try to convince majority that Earth is flat , ignoring facts and proves and there is no way they would change their minds ... Believe whatever you want, its your right , but for majority you will be ignorants.

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Originally Posted by Skuddy

if you do something 100 times you have a better chance of getting it than you do if you only do it once. being unbiased and random is what i consider fair for looting.

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Originally Posted by Drunkuser

Wrong.

When you do 1 raid, and you got 15% chance of winning an item by roll, your probability of winning is 15%.
When you do 10 raids, each one with 15% chance of winning, your probability of having won that item within those is 80,32%.
Statistically, the more raids you do, the more chances you have, up to almost 100% with enough raids. It's cumulative. Skuddy is right.

As I said earlier, folks here against /roll have no idea how statistics and probability work, so it's a lost cause argoument.

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This works for coin toss or dice roll but rolling for items is different because you are not trying to get head/tail or specific number on dice, you are rolling against other players. So yes, you have higher chance to roll more than 90 if you roll hundred times than if you roll ten times. That's called cumulative probability. But rolling over 90 doesn't mean win. You are counting with two different things.

Not entirely convinced that the /roll folks in this thread aren't simply being facetious, but I'll bite!

In the first place, the expectation that a certain standard of impartiality needs to be met is completely misplaced. Especially when what you mean by "fair" is just wild RNG in all its untamed glory. The entire case crumbles before it can crystallize into something even vaguely resembling a compelling argument when you consider how utterly unfounded this premise is.

The instant the Master Looter option is chosen, you're surrendering to some form of a Loot Council. Systems like EPGP and DKP can loosely be viewed as attempts by players to "automate" their Loot Council, where some degree of human prejudice is removed, and your system does the loot councilling for you based on the rules you define.

The expectation that you should be entitled to what you think is your fair shot at gear also falls flat in view of the fact that raiding guilds don't exist to feed your entitlement to gear. They exist to enable raiding in a scheduled and organized fashion, among players whom you can generally count on to meet some minimum benchmark of competence. You build guilds like these by using intelligent looting systems that absolutely are biased and heavily-slanted in favour of rewarding performance, conduct, reliability and loyalty - all the attributes in players that make them valuable assets to guilds.

Now this ended up being totally glossed over, but earlier in this thread, Gnimo made one of the most salient points in this discussion - any raid you attend with a guild is not just something that's happening "right now" in a vacuum. It's happening because the guild's infrastructure was functional enough to allow it to happen, and part of what went into building it was a loot system that rewards people intelligently. This is something that's evident even to veteran players joining a new guild for the first time as long as they have some appreciation of the effort that goes into running a raiding guild that has its act together. You join a raid, it starts at a certain time, people do their buffs properly, know the strategies that will be used for each encounter, the raid (typically) makes it much further into the instance than pugs do, and then the raid ends at a certain time - all of that is built on the back of the guild's prior raiding history, and the players that made that possible.


Also:

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Originally Posted by Drunkuser

It's incredible how many people are so ignorant and don't know how statistics and probability work.
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It doesn't matter if your are lucky or unlucky with rolls, in the end everyone will get their item, with the same fair chance of winning it.

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Yep, this isn't how statistics and probability work.

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Originally Posted by SabDK

This is a lost cause argument.

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This thread is wasting more time than a bidding war in increments of one.

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Originally Posted by Sixtyninee

This thread is wasting more time than a bidding war in increments of one.

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Indeed... it should have ended when it turned into people comparing being in a guild with real life jobs, calling others entitled for wanting to be included in the pool which they just participated in getting - while wanting to be entitled to get first dibs due to "seniority points" - and talking like playing the game while relying on a stable group of players somehow meant some sort of effort that should be recognized, making it look like being in that stable group wasn't a reward in itself and like their only purpose in being in a guild is to have an easier time gearing, negating any claimed "effort for the guild" at its root.

"Effort for the guild" is perfectly valid reason, guess why? Because people - who are the guild - all agreed and are there exactly for that. So shall it be. They came together signed, accepted invites and said "time and effort we put into guild will be rewarded!" and it was so. New member joins and recognizes seniors being rewarded and in turn he will be rewarded for time he puts into it.

How established guilds do things internally - must be delusional if someone says they will have any say in it.

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Originally Posted by SirFabled

This works for coin toss or dice roll but rolling for items is different because you are not trying to get head/tail or specific number on dice, you are rolling against other players. So yes, you have higher chance to roll more than 90 if you roll hundred times than if you roll ten times. That's called cumulative probability. But rolling over 90 doesn't mean win. You are counting with two different things.

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the number you roll doesn't matter, i've seen icc items won with low 20 rolls. it boils down to the more times you get to roll the more chances you have to end up with the highest roll.

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Originally Posted by DarkenedHue

Not entirely convinced that the /roll folks in this thread aren't simply being facetious, but I'll bite!

In the first place, the expectation that a certain standard of impartiality needs to be met is completely misplaced. Especially when what you mean by "fair" is just wild RNG in all its untamed glory. The entire case crumbles before it can crystallize into something even vaguely resembling a compelling argument when you consider how utterly unfounded this premise is.

The instant the Master Looter option is chosen, you're surrendering to some form of a Loot Council. Systems like EPGP and DKP can loosely be viewed as attempts by players to "automate" their Loot Council, where some degree of human prejudice is removed, and your system does the loot councilling for you based on the rules you define.

The expectation that you should be entitled to what you think is your fair shot at gear also falls flat in view of the fact that raiding guilds don't exist to feed your entitlement to gear. They exist to enable raiding in a scheduled and organized fashion, among players whom you can generally count on to meet some minimum benchmark of competence. You build guilds like these by using intelligent looting systems that absolutely are biased and heavily-slanted in favour of rewarding performance, conduct, reliability and loyalty - all the attributes in players that make them valuable assets to guilds.

Now this ended up being totally glossed over, but earlier in this thread, Gnimo made one of the most salient points in this discussion - any raid you attend with a guild is not just something that's happening "right now" in a vacuum. It's happening because the guild's infrastructure was functional enough to allow it to happen, and part of what went into building it was a loot system that rewards people intelligently. This is something that's evident even to veteran players joining a new guild for the first time as long as they have some appreciation of the effort that goes into running a raiding guild that has its act together. You join a raid, it starts at a certain time, people do their buffs properly, know the strategies that will be used for each encounter, the raid (typically) makes it much further into the instance than pugs do, and then the raid ends at a certain time - all of that is built on the back of the guild's prior raiding history, and the players that made that possible.


Also:


Yep, this isn't how statistics and probability work.

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This easily is the smartest and most reasonable post anyone has come up with in this entire thread. To a point where I feel dumb for focussing so much on gear and loot within a proper guild environment.

+1

I'm out!

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Originally Posted by DarkenedHue

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Yep, this isn't how statistics and probability work.

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I'm sorry for you, math isn't an opinion. Open a book sometimes.

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Originally Posted by Skuddy

everyone gets a fair chance at the loot. the longer you stay and more raids you do the higher chance you have of winning a roll.

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yea thats not how math works there boss.

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Originally Posted by Drunkuser

I'm sorry for you, math isn't an opinion. Open a book sometimes.

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nor is ignorance an opinion which you seem to be doing. i suggest you watch this video to learn about what Darkenedhue was saying https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QE2u...el=KhanAcademy

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Originally Posted by Sixtyninee

This thread is wasting more time than a bidding war in increments of one.

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Leo, im honestly surprised you are still alive on here

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Originally Posted by Skuddy

ya'll just like dkp because it guarantees you loot after so long

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Skuddy, you have been on these forums forever as well. I assume you only PvP or something as you seem to have zero knowledge on this topic or why the above statement is so absolutely false. Adding to what Darkenedhue had to say and having played with all the loot systems personally as an officer/GM/Raider for years, it should be quite clear why rolling for gear is a bad idea. We do not use it because it "guarantees you loot after so long" it rewards players who show up, do good, or whatever rules are set up prior for people to earn DKP. Here on warmane this system benefits the most due to the high overturn of players and encourages them to log on more to get more points to spend on gear or in a loot council situation be noticed more by those who are doing that kind of loot rewards system.

DKP also encourages new players to show up for more events and help commit to the guild more so than a veteran player. Now while each system has its faults people prefer DKP at least here as it ensures more people log in for raids which is the bigger issue. Sure in pug runs or higher end guilds DKP imo (and depending on the system lets assume no decay) becomes less useful as it allows veterans to stack up useless DKP and possibly (depends on guild rules) buy items on lets say an alt over someones main. Most guilds however take this into consideration and allow the mains to have a crack at the item first.

Rolling does NOT promise you anything. Especially if each week the raid comp is different and maybe there is another person who also rolls on the same gear you do. It happens all the time.

Now in high end guilds or even progressive guilds loot council can be much more effective if they are unbiased of course as leaders tend to gear up tanks/healers first are they are more important than the DPS. But DPS is important too! yes it is however if you are hard stuck on a boss and the gear of the healers and tanks is not up to par that will be your first problem. DPS wont matter if the tanks cant take a hit or the healers cant heal.

Personally i prefer DKP mixed with some form of loot council for certain items. This allows bidding to be done by loyal players and also allows the guild leaders to choose who to reward some of the items to players deserving of it and also can help gear up someone the leads deem necessary in order to further progress the guild.

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Originally Posted by Freddybaby

yea thats not how math works there boss.

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that's exactly how math works. someone who rolls 100 times has 100 chances at winning loot, someone who rolls once has 1 chance. if it doesn't make sense to you go back to school.

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Originally Posted by Freddybaby

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i hate pvp. i simply don't agree with loot rules that favor one group over the other. word it however you like. if you attend a raid, you should have a fair chance at loot dropped in that raid. period. end of story.

people can and will still show up for events that offer them loot, you don't need dkp for that to happen. the only part of dkp that would be helpful would be a icc geared played attending a lesser raid solely to boost their dkp, while the lesser geared players role on that raids gear. assuming they have dkp.

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Originally Posted by Freddybaby

yea thats not how math works there boss.

nor is ignorance an opinion which you seem to be doing. i suggest you watch this video to learn about what Darkenedhue was saying https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QE2u...el=KhanAcademy

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You clearly don't know anything about the matter but you still wanted to sound smart with you 3 minute google study search and random video link, which backfired badly invalidating your own beliefs, probably without you even knowing it.

I don't really care if you like DKP, go on. What makes my eyes bleed here is people discussing math with their middle school degrees and videogames resumes, spreading total misinformations.

Statistically, the more raids you do, the more probability you will have to obtain an item, up to almost 100% with enough raids. That's not my opinion, that's a fact, if you don't believe me ask a mathematician (another one...) or a professor.

I already had my fair share of statistics and probability with my exams at the university and I am extensively done on the subject, but thanks for the thought.

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Originally Posted by Drunkuser

up to almost 100% with enough raids.

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That's right. Even with infinite raids it will not reach 100%.

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Originally Posted by Skuddy

that's exactly how math works. someone who rolls 100 times has 100 chances at winning loot, someone who rolls once has 1 chance. if it doesn't make sense to you go back to school.

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Again you are failing to understand the other factors here. Of course you will always have a chance, however that varies depending on how many people roll for the same object. Not a clue what you are talking about. you said this:

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Originally Posted by Skuddy

everyone gets a fair chance at the loot. the longer you stay and more raids you do the higher chance you have of winning a roll.

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how does the longer you stay give you a better chance? Are you assuming the raid comp will never change? your chance varies depending on how many people roll for the same item. it does not go up by some magic the longer you stay in the raid.

You do have a fair chance at loot with DKP and other systems as i described above. It just tends to reward players who show up and participate and do well more than those who are not. If you are under performing (for your gear at its current level) and not showing up why should you get gear? Because you are bad and complain and whine? no. i mean this is very clear to most of us idk why its not for you.

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Originally Posted by Drunkuser

You clearly don't know anything about the matter but you still wanted to sound smart with you 3 minute google study search and random video link, which backfired badly invalidating your own beliefs, probably without you even knowing it.

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yes i clearly do know about the matter but please continue...i linked the most simple video i could find for you to comprehend. It backfired? really? how? that comment alone is just random nonsense.

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Originally Posted by Drunkuser

I don't really care if you like DKP, go on. What makes my eyes bleed here is people discussing math with their middle school degrees and videogames resumes, spreading total misinformations.

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No one else here is spreading misinformation except you my friend. You need to take a step back and see how triggered you are which is clouding your ability to comprehend the conversation that is going on here. You kids and your "I'm the victim" "look at me!" mentality does not help anyone.

Here is where the train falls off the tracks....

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Originally Posted by Drunkuser

Statistically, the more raids you do, the more probability you will have to obtain an item, up to almost 100% with enough raids. That's not my opinion, that's a fact, if you don't believe me ask a mathematician (another one...) or a professor.

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You will have the same, better, or worse chance. It does NOT go up the more raids you do where are you people coming up with this from? Raid comps change all the time you never raid with the same people/characters every raid. Thus, you could have more people/characters in the raid who need the same gear, or less, or the same. Again it DOES NOT go up the more raids you do. Where in the world are you getting these percentages from? You are right you dont need to be a professor or mathematician to realize this and why your quote above should be introduced into every college around the world to show how stats and probability do NOT work.

Again for those who do not understand this; Raid comps change every week. You never raid with the same players/characters every week. If you have done any form of pve you would know this.

so let me break it down as simple as i can since you math professors do not get this

lets say
week 1 you are rolling against 1 warrior and 1 feral for a piece you need
week 2 its now 2 warriors rolling and 2 ferals
week 3 is 1 warrior rolling
week 4 is 2 warriors 1 feral rolling

in what week is your chance the best at winning said item?
which week is the next highest chance of winning?
what week is the lowest chance of winning?

i hope this puts and end to the lunacy ive read in this thread from people, but i doubt it. Warmane has so many fanatical geniuses, here on the forums, youtube, twitch, ect. you should all make a Warmane school for the blind and teach your amazing theories there.