He meant cumulative probability in a long run. If item's drop chance is 15% and you have 30% chance to get an item after some 15 raids or whatever it's like 90% probability you will have gotten the item. After 50 raids its something like 99%. Even if "statistics" says you should have it 100% at certain point it is possible to be false and you can lose forever.
Kind of doesn't stick into "roll is fair" narrative, but whatever.
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Forum Veteran
Edited: September 26, 2020
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Forum Veteran
the more raids you do the more rolls you get, the more rolls you get the more chance you have at loot. how you don't understand that is beyond me.
you should get the CHANCE at gear because you attended that raid. past raids don't matter. the only thing clear is you all like your weighted system.
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Member
shoutouts to skuddy for defending his point for 8 pages straight.
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Member
Yes as i said before in my last post which i guess you failed to read entirely even though you quoted me saying this exact thing, you will always have a chance.
You said
It does NOT get higher was my point of contention with what you said. That chance goes up or down depending on who else is rolling. So yet again, if one week 3 people roll on that item you need and the next week only 2 roll yes your chance to get it went up. But, it does not keep going down until you are the only one to roll. Thats not how raids work. Alts, other members, bench warmers join different raids weekly thus making the amount of people rolling on said item change ever week. Your chances can stay the same, increase, or decrease weekly due to the raid comp never being the same.
I don't know how you people cannot grasp that concept. This should be common sense. 2 people roll one week on an item 50% chance, one wins, next week they bring in two other people to the raid who need that item (so now there are 3 of you rolling) your chance drops to 33%. It constantly varies. There has never been a guild on warmane that runs the same set up week in and week out and certainly not pugs.
TLDR Do you get "chances" every week? yes. Everyone knows this. However that chance varies from week to week bc of ever changing raid comps. This does not increase your chance every week as time goes on as there is a never endless supply of alts, bench members, and people who may have missed last weeks raid on their main. Now if you keep the same setup same players every week thats a different story but this is not retail and thats never happened here on warmane. So either you are living in a fantasy land or you do not understand probability correctly.
NO. It does not work that way. The chance is constantly varying due to raid comps. again, read above.
So, the guy who just joined should have the same chance as a veteran who never misses raids, helps the guild out every time he can, and does his job well?
Yes that totally seems fair.
Again, i hope this puts and end to the lunacy ive read in this thread from people, but i doubt it. Warmane has so many fanatical and mathematical geniuses, here on the forums, youtube, twitch, ect. you should all make a Warmane school for the blind and teach your amazing theories there. I hear Gnarly Guides is hiring.Edited: September 26, 2020
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Moderator
As we have reached a point where soon there will be people using "but what if power goes out when the roll happened? huh? what if a satellite crashes on their house?? huh?! that reduces the probability!" I'll just leave this here... There's a good reason most good coop/MMO games use or have evolved into using personal/individual loot. It removes drama and is seen by all but the most "effort-entitled" as the simplest and fairest method, where everyone has a chance based on the here and now only.
Guess what effectively emulates personal loot (albeit leaving in the drama from the "entitled," unfortunately, as they would still see the results and complain that they deserve it more)?
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Forum Veteran
not much else to do, forums are quiet haha.
by higher i just meant more chances. poor wording on my part.
of the guilds i've been in there was always a core raid team that didn't vary much when it came to people, and i've never played retail so it most definately happens (or at least use to happen) on warmane/molten.
yes, that is totally fair. past effort effected past raids, not the current one.
you're not going to put anything to rest so long as you defend dkp.Edited: September 26, 2020
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Member
No it does not happen. you do not have the same core for months which is what it takes minus donations. raid comps are constantly changing. Iv'e been in more guilds than i can count and we never had had the same raid set up week in and week out.
Then you are living in a fantasy land of rainbows and unicorns. Apply that to anything in real life and see how it works. People who put the work in deserve gear over the person who just started. You want fair then complain about it when it does not suit your narrative. Don't be naive.
so long as there are people out there with no common sense who cant see facts over their fallacies i guess we will always have something to talk about. BTW im not defending DKP im defending using /roll and your goofy sense of probability vs DKP. i said in my first post i prefer a loot council / DKP option. I swear you people only read what you want to. You are worse than the media.
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Forum Veteran
you can easily have the majority of a core be the same. out of like the 4 guilds i was in 2 of them had a consistent core team.
real life and in game are 2 different animals. you don't get more fair in a game that doesn't have personal loot than random rolls. any other form is biased.
there's nothing goofy about more rolls = more chance at loot. it's basic math. when most of ya'll are spouting the same crap i tend to not read everything. sue me.
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Member
no offense but it does not happen on warmane. Ive helped progressive guilds and been a part of some of the best guilds. so you can lie to others but not me. it simply does not happen.
what is your point? that things that apply to real life shouldent apply here when we are talking work ethics and tenure? yes it should be comparable in that sense. why would you think it is not? again, if you think that a new person to the guild should be able to get loot over the guy who has worked hard, showed up all the time then there is something wrong with you. you can compare that to real life. if you are brand new on the job you think you should have the same personal/vacation time for example as a guy who does not miss work and has been dedicated for years? You are not going to get far in life by thinking that way. or in game.
ive said this like 5 times now. that is not what you said. that is not the quote i was referencing. how do you not get that by now?
again, you said the following:
your chances only change depending on how many people are rolling against you. So you are promised nothing if you roll on every single piece of loot the entire raid your chances to win will always be 50% if you roll against 1 other person and less when rolling against more. that has nothing to do with higher chances the longer you stay or the longer the raid goes on.
For the last time, the % of you winning has to do with how many people roll against you. why is it so hard for you and others in here to grasp this concept?
i should have stopped replying to the stupidity long ago when you dint even realized you quoted something i had already explained. but im a sucker for *****s i guess.
either way if you dont like the systems that guilds use, go create your own guild, make your own rules and see how well /roll works for you, then come back here and let me know so i can get a good laugh.Edited: September 27, 2020
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Forum Veteran
it does, whether you believe it does or not doesn't matter.
you can compare it to whatever you want for all i care. it's not the same. a game isn't real life and shouldn't be played as if it is.
my replies are based on my experience with the guilds i've been in. where as time goes by everyone gets gear and you're chances go up as the others get their pieces. not my fault you've been in guilds that don't have consistent teams, which apparently dkp promotes.
if that's the case you must have some amazing conversations with yourself.
it's been pretty clear what i think of the system. creating a guild on a game i only log into once in a blue moon would be rather pointless, i only stick around for the luls i get from the forum base. and /roll works great when those involved aren't greedy. apparently that's a minority group around here.
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Member
No, it definitely isn't!
So when you claim something to the effect of "It doesn't matter if your are lucky or unlucky with rolls, in the end everyone will get their item", it's definitely more than a little ironic when you're also trying to present as the voice of statistical literacy in the thread.
In reality, not only are you never guaranteed 100% odds of getting any piece of loot, but you'll also never do enough raids for those odds to approach something resembling near-certainty.
I didn't spend too much effort calling attention to this failure because:
1) Frankly, that would have been going after low-hanging fruit. Honestly, you even tried perching your entire case on the credentials of some elective, while hand-waving away whatever you presume everyone else's background to be. The fruit doesn't get much lower.
2) Even addressing the point about loot odds might be seen as ceding that there's some validity to the various claims that loot rules should be in so and so way, which there isn't. Even now the posters on your side of the argument - assuming they're actually being unironic - are just parroting most of the same banal talking points from the first page going "loot rules should be like this" and "this raid is just this single raid". Literally just screeching their opinion out into the void with no intention of engaging with anything that's said in return, content with finding solace in the handful of other voices that join their chorus of futile screaming.Edited: September 27, 2020
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Forum Veteran
Can you give us an example, since "NO it doesn't work that way, mah common sense!" is pretty lame proof.
So, what is the probability for 2 variables to overlap(you win the item) with these parameters:
15% drop chance
30% chance to win
15 instances
You can even make a graph with probability on each instance, draw a nice distribution curve and everything. You can mark a point for that dude you carried on first raid to get an item and put yourself way behind the curve to properly represent RNG cancer.
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Wind of Northrend
@Obnoxious
I hope you are not comparing WotLK loot (items) and systems on how to distribute them to current, aka retail wow loot (items) and loot systems overall. :D
Also, if real life jobs did not give you any kind of rewards, no one would want to do them (majority of them at least, some might as a hobby).
If you got nothing while working as hard as you can while the co-worker next to you worked 10% of that and got everything, would you keep on working hard?
No. You would ether find a new job or just be as lazy as your co-worker.
Same goes for loot, why would I join a raid and keep on coming if someone who does not put in 10% of effort as I did gets the loot over me?
So stop pretending like reward system is not important and is completely different from the real life examples.
No one said that GAME should be taken as SERIOUSLY as REAL LIFE JOB, and for sure DKP system does not make you chose between the two, especially on a patch that is FROZEN FOR 10 YEARS.
Just out of curiosity, how much was the longest you have been in an active raiding guild that used DKP system raiding each week at least once?
1 week? 10 months? 10 years?
@statisticalgods
Can someone explain to me how after 300 rolls:
https://imgur.com/a/l0QCjB3
numbers: {34, 44, 64, 89} happened 0 times, while for example number {3} happened 6 times.
Explain to me how is that fair also?
Imagine being number {34} and someone else being number {3}. :D
In WOW your chance of getting an item depends on who are you rolling against ONLY, not when will you get an item depending on how many runs you did.
Multiple runs wont be an increase in your chance to WIN an item, it may be an increase in chance that in one of the raids you will see the item drop, nothing else.
Once you get that 1/X chance that item dropped, than you need to be lucky to roll higher against someone else in the raid that wants the same item.
That is RNG stacked on RNG for you to claim statistics and probability will help you out and EVENTUALLY it will be your lucky day because luck is FAIR.
Tell that to numbers: {34, 44, 64, 89} "Luck is fair after 300 attempts". :D
There is a reason why I ended up spending 23 coins on STS on my Enha shaman after 2+ months of farming RS weekly.
Imagine looking at a trinket each week but not the one you want to drop after 10+weeks?
Imagine that you see it on 11th week and you lose a roll to a trial that joined the guild yesterday.
Statistically imposibruuu! Luck is fair indeed!
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Member
*tries to defend dkp to show people u will gear more quickly
*spent two months trying to drop a trinket
*end up buying the trinket with coins
seems like lucky people can be unlucky too
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Forum Veteran
You have same chance to win in each trial, but cumulative probability will observe that after certain amount of attempts almost all people will win once.
Lets create an example, 100M$ goes to winner. You can play one of 2 games:
Roll once against other 2 people for 1 necessary win.
Roll 10 times against other 2 people with 1 necessary win.
Which game you pick and why?
