Your ability to miss the point completely and say something random is awesome.
That is exactly why you dont want to insert another RNG factor such as /roll in already huge RNG factor such as chance for an item to drop.
If at any point the item dropped, I would be the one getting it because I had most DKP since I dont need anything else.
That system would let me bis my character the fastest way because I could lose the roll against A LOT of people rolling on the same trinket way too many times.
But I would suggest trying to join a guild with working DKP system and stay in it for a long period of time before commenting again.
Do I have to repeat my question for the third time?
Out of 300 rolls, where you can get a number from 1-100, why did I NOT get the numbers: {34, 44, 64, 89} at all, and I got number: {3} 6 times??
BECAUSE SAMLE SIZE IS SMALL.
Out of 15 boss kills where you have 15 different items, one can assume that every 15th kill would result in a drop of 1 out of 15 items that you need.
What if the item drops 2 times in a row after 28 kills?
What if the item drops 5 times in a row after 70 kills?
It will still get in the 1 out of 15 chance to drop by those numbers.
This is EXACTLY why you can NOT link statistic and probability with things in wow such as:
CHANCE FOR AN ITEM TO DROP + CHANCE FOR YOUR ROLL TO BE HIGHER THAN SOMEONE ELSES ROLL.
There is a reason people dont see items for a long long loooong time, even tho they already killed the boss more than double the times what statistical "laws" would call a "100% chance to drop next time you kill it", by your logic.
There is a reason why I farmed Aldrianas every week for 6 months on my warrior, coined it after so much, just for it to drop the next raid I joined on my warrior.
I can keep on giving examples like this where the statistics and probability you value so much in these conversations fail in the game.
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Wind of Northrend
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Forum Veteran
It is within the probability curve. /rolls are absolute rng cancer, exact reason why I use DKP, but you gotta be fair to probability
idk maybe this can describe best, it's like you said, RNG in RNG in RNG x few more times:
https://i.imgur.com/oIFYafH.jpg
If you put 1000 people waiting for Alrianas, 1% of them will get it isntantly, most of them will get it as curve ramps up and few unlucky will get it after 50 raids.. or never. You have like 98% chance to be in the middle of the curve.Edited: September 27, 2020
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Member
rofl thanks man :D appreciate it
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Member
I feel like.. dkp is for guild who farm and want to keep circle tight. Ofc youre welcome in, but you work for it. Then there are free rolls, ms os, all arounds. You join, you accept rules. Done. If you dont like, doesnt feel fair, dont. This whole yes no yes no is just.. arghh.. You know where your heading when you join raid, if you dont. Dont join.
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Member
Guys, probability is a science. Let's not argue about it for 10+ pages, because nobody here is wrong. You have a preference. That's it.
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Wind of Northrend
@angrylol
If you ask me, assuming that you will be lucky and be in normal distributions 95% constantly when talking about 16 item slots and multiple characters without ever getting in the 5%, and/or margin of error A and error B is A LOT if you ask me.
Again, my point was just that you can not use "laws" of statistics and probability with such ease when talking about such small sample such as the time you raid on the char you are trying to get bis items on.
Even if it took you 2 years, which is somewhere around 100-120 raids if you are doing full clear every week.
Those "laws" are used on far bigger samples.
You have my 300 rolls, explain to me what happened and how many errors I had...
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Forum Veteran
It's just a prediction based on observations. You have way higher chance to be in middle of distribution. 1 item you will get on first raid, 14 scattered "in the middle" and last one after 50 raids, maybe even 120 raids. There will be a dude who got all 16 after first raid. There will be a dude that didnt get any after 120 raids, that's not ... probable, but possible.
Every small sample is a piece of big sample. We know the drop rate, we know the average competition in a raid build, sample size doesn't matter much.
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Member
I lost some braincells reading through everything.
I'm so thankful I've already graduated from this expansion
When will warmane implement personal loot and re-roll tokens just to shut everyone up
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Forum Veteran
personal loot would be amazing, and solve pretty much all looting problems.
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Member
I like that idea. It would guarantee a drop at least. Would also make people more willing to join randoms.
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Member
Go play whatever expansion that crap was added then.
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Member
Personal loot was one of the worst change than Blizzard implemented. Not saying that greed/need or DKP system feels like heaven, but its probably the best that this game can offer.
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Forum Veteran
i play an entirely different game where that "crap" exists. and there's next to 0 loot drama.
how exactly?
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Member
And look what a joke retail is right now. :)
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Forum Veteran
Retail isn't a joke because they added personal loot. Don't be a moron.
