The effects of gold squish with data!!

Hi all we had a gold squish i wanted to compare the effects on the prices on items on warmane, i am interested in data and wanted to see the price data for auction on various servers including warmane.
Here we are on the website i store all the auction house data.
My main reason to create this site was to understand the market and mainly see if i am making a profit when i make items like Titansteel weapons.

Now we have gold squish and i was really interested to see how that affected the market and if the reasons the admins are doing it is actually working or not.
I got a few charts to see this information. I selected the most common mats that are used in the game which are very liquid. THESE ARE ALL FROM THE HORDE SIDE.

Artic Fur
Source
https://i.ibb.co/tpZ78Ny/artic-fur.jpg

Cardinal Ruby
Source
https://i.ibb.co/xhNQ0sw/cardinal-ruby.jpg

Frozen Orb
Source
https://i.ibb.co/DtJQwdb/frozen-orb.jpg

Machano Hog
Source
https://i.ibb.co/xSSq82t/machano-hog.jpg

Primordial Saronite
Source
https://i.ibb.co/QFgChm0/primorial-saronite.jpg

TitanSteel Bar
Source
https://i.ibb.co/qy8XCTq/titansteel.jpg

Void Crystals
Source
https://i.ibb.co/HtXZ7HJ/void-crystals.jpg

So you can see the charts, once people find out the squish is coming they start raising the price, and the prices double for all the items. So you are squishing 50% but your Auction house prices are being doubled i dont think that affects much.
One of the main reasons the prices increase and spike is because people will start hording the materials. I did that too, when i know that the quish was coming i brought a lot of titansteel bars and 3 stacks of primos.

Alternate solution to squish, have a price control bot which monitors the auction house. Guild wars 2 used to do this with their Premium keys, they would always make sure the keys didnt reach below a certain limit and not above a certain limit.
Make this the same system for all the mats, just that if you see someone increasing the price too much, just pump the auction house with auctions that are low to bring the price down, this will stablize the auction house and it will solve a major problem of price gouging.

Let me know what you guys think

There is a spike for 1 month and then there is a drop. Overall the prices seem pretty consistent over the years. Question i am more curious about is what will prices be if we didnt had this gold squish each year.

Don't bother, use this data for only one reason - make yourself lots of gold and exploit squish.

As far as why there are squishes? All I got was "inflation because everyone has 9999999999 gold", yet these charts disprove that, or at least proves it has nothing to do with economy. Only inflation we see here is one caused by squish where in the later half of the year prices start to raise, most notably at the start of Nov.

I don't know what kind of super secret "considerations" staff goes trough, but as far as I can see it has nothing to do with long-term inflation or healthy economy. Somewhere was a talk that they do it because prices start to raise at the end of the year, I mean, lets squish it because squish created inflation that has to be squished, eerr, some loopy trippy stuff.

TL:DR
Don't bother, just milk the noobs dry of their gold. Buy that cheap goodness now and sell it for almost double after a month. Healthy.

You have the wrong hypothesis that ALL items are BOUGHT at the price they are being SOLD.

E.g. auction a primo for 5k and consider it sold, even if there are cheaper ones still not bought.

Things just don't work that way. Thus all the spikes you have in the chart. You need actual data for purchases, not for offers.

Each dot is BOUGHT item, isn't it?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Skoobydoo

There is a spike for 1 month and then there is a drop. Overall the prices seem pretty consistent over the years. Question i am more curious about is what will prices be if we didnt had this gold squish each year.

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The last month spike you see is the panic spike, people suddenly hear they will lose their gold in one month or they want to convert the remaining gold in to items and start panic buying. This drives the prices up.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by angrylol

Each dot is BOUGHT item, isn't it?

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No each dot is a median price for those items which are listed(buyout and bid prices) when the AH Was scanned.
So the previous poster is right this is not the bought price but the median listed price which is the price people will usually buy at. I dont have bought sales data.

And this exactly makes the statistic inaccurate.

You may want to scan for active bids, and this will only be a little more accurate, yet not exact, because most items with high turnover are directly bought out.

P.S. median prices rising may also mean that lower priced items were bought out while the expensive still remained.

that kind of chart costs money, you gotta have machine running 24/7 years for it to be worth something

these charts are pretty good and accurate representation, even if he collects bought items only it will show the same trend, just ~10-15% lower in price average

Obviously it is not accurate, and there is no point looking for trends in inaccurate data, but whatever.

The entire assumption that buyout prices determine the actual price is wrong.

I was buying void crystals every day all last year, for prices pretty close to what these graphs show.
People started to buy from me at the start of Nov, exactly as I expected. Should have put a higher price because I ran out of them before the big spike. Sry for making graph ugly.
These graphs are reliable, maybe not exactly by each copper, bet general trend is clear and usable. And such a thing as "actual price" does not exist.

Prices would eventually rise on everything overall, without a squish more and more gold just get's circulated, back on molten you had BOES going for well over 50k that sounds like absolute madness nowadays right? well it was normal then cus no gold squish.

There are other approaches to combat inflation. Having one massive 50% gold squish has its consequences, one being the spike in prices before it.
As other people have suggested elsewhere in this forum, instead of having one gold squish, another option would be to periodically delete a very little % of everybody's gold.
Having 50% every year means roughly 4.2% every month.

or yeno just do nothing and add more gold sinks through already existing methods, such as lottery maybe tmog scrolls for absurd amounts of gold etc

remove gray items from game and double repair costs