Another SFS Drop Rate

Until I started SM quest myself I did not belive the stories about the drop rate of Shadowfrost shards, being too low. After 10 ICC25 8/12 HC I collected only 12 shards, which is a little above 1 shard per 70% HC and 30% normal ICC25. If the Drop chance is 25-50% for normal Bosses, and 51-99% (99% being Lich King) this is the number of shards I should get:

10 (runs) X 8 (hc boss) = 80 (hc boss) X 50% = 40 shards. And 10 (runs) x 4 (normal boss) = 40 (normal boss) * (25-50%, lets use average 37%) = 14 shards.
40 shards + 14 shards = 54 shards.

Since I choosed only the raids where I am the only one looting rhe shards, I should have already compleated the Shadowmourne Quest. But I ended up with 12 shards total.
From now on, there is notthing that can make me not to belive that the drop rate is being lowered down on purpose.
Also, comments like: yesterday in my raid it dropped 9 shards, I don't accept, because those are extremely rare situations and this not comparable. In 20 runs it drops 1 shard, and 21. run it drops 9 shards, means nothing.

Personal data showed me ~normal mode droprates for heroic and obviously normal mode had even lower droprates.

However,to clear something up,the supposed droprates of each boss was unknown for retail(which is where the percentage info is from).
What little we know from official statements regarding drops is this:

Bosses
"Blood-Queen Lana'thel" "Icecrown Citadel (25) (Heroic)" "High (51% - 99%)"
"Professor Putricide" "Icecrown Citadel (25) (Heroic)" "High (51% - 99%)"
"Lady Deathwhisper" "Icecrown Citadel (25) (Heroic)" "High (51% - 99%)"
"Sindragosa" "Icecrown Citadel (25) (Heroic)" "High (51% - 99%)"
"Festergut" "Icecrown Citadel (25) (Heroic)" "High (51% - 99%)"
"Lord Marrowgar" "Icecrown Citadel (25) (Heroic)" "High (51% - 99%)"
"Rotface" "Icecrown Citadel (25) (Heroic)" "High (51% - 99%)"
"Prince Valanar" "Icecrown Citadel (25) (Heroic)" "High (51% - 99%)"
"Rotface" "Icecrown Citadel (25)" "Medium (25% - 50%)"
"Professor Putricide" "Icecrown Citadel (25)" "Medium (25% - 50%)"
"Lady Deathwhisper" "Icecrown Citadel (25)" "Medium (25% - 50%)"
"Blood-Queen Lana'thel" "Icecrown Citadel (25)" "Medium (25% - 50%)"
"Sindragosa" "Icecrown Citadel (25)" "Medium (25% - 50%)"
"Festergut" "Icecrown Citadel (25)" "Medium (25% - 50%)"
"Lord Marrowgar" "Icecrown Citadel (25)" "Medium (25% - 50%)"
"Prince Valanar" "Icecrown Citadel (25)" "Medium (25% - 50%)"

Chests
"Cache of the Dreamwalker" "Icecrown Citadel (25) (Heroic)" "High (51% - 99%)"
"Gunship Armory" "Icecrown Citadel (25) (Heroic)" "High (51% - 99%)"
"Deathbringer's Cache" "Icecrown Citadel (25) (Heroic)" "High (51% - 99%)"
"Gunship Armory" "Transport: Alliance Gunship (IGB)" "High (51% - 99%)"
"Cache of the Dreamwalker" "Icecrown Citadel (25)" "Medium (25% - 50%)"
"Gunship Armory" "Icecrown Citadel (25)" "Medium (25% - 50%)"
"Deathbringer's Cache" "Icecrown Citadel (25)" "Medium (25% - 50%)"
"Gunship Armory" "Transport: Alliance Gunship (IGB)" "Medium (25% - 50%)"

Which is a blanket statement of 25-50% normal 51-99% heroic drops,no boss specific info.

Tl;dr: yes,on warmane the shard droprate is lower. However,there's one thing,LK on heroic almost always drops a shard,though that doesn't really make up for the low droprates. Avg time to get Shadowmourne should be 2-3 months with mixed runs,which obviously isn't the case here,unless one is extremely lucky.

It's probably slower here so the SM gain would take longer time, to keep the SM income slower as this patch is to stay.

"In retail", as everybody loves to mention, there was limited time before SM would become obsolete thanks to upcoming Cataclysm expansion. In retail, ICC wasn't farmed to this extent (this long, and with the same efficiency) with 30% buff.

In Warmane, there's no expansion coming, the ICC is farmed with great consistency. So more and more are getting SM, but nobody is replacing it ever.

If SFS drop rate would be same as retail, there would be even more ret/pala/DK's running around with SM's.

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Originally Posted by OhieMitzen

It's probably slower here so the SM gain would take longer time, to keep the SM income slower as this patch is to stay.

"In retail", as everybody loves to mention, there was limited time before SM would become obsolete thanks to upcoming Cataclysm expansion. In retail, ICC wasn't farmed to this extent (this long, and with the same efficiency) with 30% buff.

In Warmane, there's no expansion coming, the ICC is farmed with great consistency. So more and more are getting SM, but nobody is replacing it ever.

If SFS drop rate would be same as retail, there would be even more ret/pala/DK's running around with SM's.

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Then they should say that it is low drop rate with purpose. Not yelling around and telling that we all are ******s to think that it is not blizzlike, when, according to them, it is.

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Originally Posted by aryanprince

Then they should say that it is low drop rate with purpose. Not yelling around and telling that we all are ******s to think that it is not blizzlike, when, according to them, it is.

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I said probably, I didn't say it is lowered. One would need larger pool of statistics to determine if the SFS drops are nerfed or not (I personally wouldn't care if it was, it just makes obtaining SM longer). It's been discussed for a long time, you only need to google Warmane Shadowfrost Shards and you get many threads about it.

Just yesterday did a 9 boss bug run (GS HC) and at least 3 shards dropped from the first three bosses. I didn't pay that much attention if others dropped SFS' as well.

Sometimes RNG blesses you, sometime it doesn't.

Well, you are judging it by your personal experience. Yesterday guildmate got 8 shards from 12/12HC clear. I myself built SM in less than 3 monthes

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Originally Posted by Persivaln

Well, you are judging it by your personal experience. Yesterday guildmate got 8 shards from 12/12HC clear. I myself built SM in less than 3 monthes

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That is extremely rare. While full hc runs do yield more I would say on average the drop rate for a full hc run is 4 shards per clear. 8/12 is around 2 (LK almost always drops one even on nm, and you usually get lucky on one of the wing bosses). I say this as someone who actively raids both factions in LoD and progression guilds. It will take on average 4-5 months of semi hc clears to get SM. The drop rate is definently lower than the stated online statistics, but I agree with others that a lower rate is warranted given the server is static.