Drop chance ?

Hi, is warmane deliberately lowering % chance to drop items for Tmog from TBC dungeons, or did they remove such items, so we have to buy it via coin shop?
I'm trying to get Shaarde the Greater from Mana tombs. I have killed Tavarok like 30+ times already, all I'm getting is lightning-rod-pauldrons like 5x , Staff of Polarities at least 15x, Nethershade Boots 3x, Cloak of Revival 2 or 3, Scimitar of the Nexus-Stalkers 3x. According to wotlk.cavernsoftime.com every item should have drop chance around17%.
How is it possible that staff has 17% and I drop it 15x, but Shaarde the Greater with 16 or 17% drop chance won't drop even once in 30 or 35 run? Is that item even there or I can save my time and straight buy it for 6 coins in shop.

It's just bad RNG.

https://tbc.wowhead.com/item=25944/shaarde-the-greater

Says it's 10.84%, reported drop chance of 14% from those who run wowhead client.
Either way, lowest % according to that page.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OhieMitzen

It's just bad RNG.

https://tbc.wowhead.com/item=25944/shaarde-the-greater

Says it's 10.84%, reported drop chance of 14% from those who run wowhead client.
Either way, lowest % according to that page.

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You can't tell me it's that RNG with 10% drop chance. Ive killed that boss around 50+ times still nothing...no way you can have 10% drop on item that won't drop in 50+ boss kill...people are farming stratholme 100 times for mount but mount has 0.3% or something like that. Can somehow affect Tavarok loot that I'm walking by Pandemonius and I'm not killing him? It feels like the item is not even there, I spend last 2 days running in and out resetting mana tombs every hour 5times...if this drop was in ICC rip

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vitmen

You can't tell me it's that RNG with 10% drop chance. Ive killed that boss around 50+ times still nothing...no way you can have 10% drop on item that won't drop in 50+ boss kill...people are farming stratholme 100 times for mount but mount has 0.3% or something like that. Can somehow affect Tavarok loot that I'm walking by Pandemonius and I'm not killing him? It feels like the item is not even there, I spend last 2 days running in and out resetting mana tombs every hour 5times...if this drop was in ICC rip

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Unfortunately this is not how statistics work as none of your runs affect the next one or are affected by a previous one. Meaning that every time, you are engaging with a 90% probability of failing the roll of whether the item drops or not. Statistically, it is possible, albeit unlikely, to go for 1000 runs without it dropping. This particular item has dropped for me about 4 times while I've been clearing the dungeon for rep / cloth runs, so it is there and it is quite literally poor luck. Sorry and good luck.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by theonemoh

Unfortunately this is not how statistics work as none of your runs affect the next one or are affected by a previous one. Meaning that every time, you are engaging with a 90% probability of failing the roll of whether the item drops or not. Statistically, it is possible, albeit unlikely, to go for 1000 runs without it dropping. This particular item has dropped for me about 4 times while I've been clearing the dungeon for rep / cloth runs, so it is there and it is quite literally poor luck. Sorry and good luck.

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Yes I didn't think about those 90%-tage probability, already dropped as soon as you replied here haha, I guess less complaining more grinding. Thanks for all responses.