Bad luck on dropchances?

The problem with probabilities is variance, but there is also the law of large numbers, which means the bigger the samplesize is the closer it gets to the fixed dropchance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

I am raiding ICC with my shaman for about one and half years, that's roughly 75 weeks. In this time I have seen the Festergut boots drop once, that is 1/75. In my other guild where I am raiding with my paladin we had PNL drop from Sindragosa twice in about 34 raids, so that is 2/34 or 1/17 . Also we are not getting any heroic conqeror's mark for something like 8 raids in a row. Since we get 2 marks each raid, that's 0/16. Last but not least I have 3 characters with transmutation mastery and I got it proc 4 times (x2) in about 3 months, which is also absurdly low. Note: We are not talking small samplesize here.

The droprate on the boots should be 33%: https://www.wowhead.com/wotlk/npc=36...drops;mode:h25
The droprate on PNL should be 25%: https://www.wowhead.com/wotlk/npc=36...drops;mode:n25
The procrate on transmutation mastery should be 20%: https://worldofwarcraft.fandom.com/e...utation_Master

Other people had similar experiences:
https://forum.warmane.com/showthread.php?t=348938
https://forum.warmane.com/showthread.php?t=344732
https://forum.warmane.com/showthread.php?t=400101

Yes, every roll of the dice is independent in theory, so the chance on every single event doesn't change. Yet, it is unlikely to produce big streaks of failure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complementary_event

RNG (aka variance) is also not the answer if the random algorithm is bugged. This is exactly what could be the case. Computers cannot generate true random numbers, so they generate pseudo-random based on a seed. When you switch on the computer this seed is identical, so in games like Tetris they use the player's action within a certain timeframe to create the seed and since humans are no roboters that's enough randomness to work with. Maybe there is a a problem with the seed for the random numbers after each server reset. This is just one theory, but there is most likely some "non-randomness" on Warmane.

Here is the reference for Tetris: https://youtu.be/YrgQDETGO00?si=qmAG2fC7r5b74-sF&t=82

Now we are not talking about a console game, where everyhing comes in a ROM. Certainly random generators on Windows or Linux are more advanced, but still this is possible explanation. The other explanation is wrong droprates in the loottables. Luck or the lack of it is also an explanation, but the bigger the samplesize gets, the less luck there is. That's what the law of large numbers is all about after all. If you do infinite tries you will reproduce the exact droprates.

Im not an expert by any means but here are my thoughts.

There is no such thing as luck in these random number generators (on servers or clients) because behind each "random" number there is mathematical formula and as you already explained there is seed based on either time or in other games on players actions or something else that devs used in the formula.

You linked one of the threads where moderator explains exactly why it doesnt matter that you have big samplesize of drops for your characters. Its personal experience... Some people want X so if X doesnt drop for Y amount of time then they are suspecting something is wrong because it doesnt drop. While in other raids people want Z but it drops every two weeks X item and they are also suspecting Z isnt dropping at all... all of that while Z drops every week for the X guy.

All of the private servers are based on cores that are typically open source like azerothcore or trinitycore (heavily modified or plain repository copies depending on server) and i doubt that warmane did mess with droprates in ICC raids or droprate mechanism itself because why would they. Because they are open source you can view the code for yourself and if you find something that is wrong or bad let the devs know in githubs and post results here i guess so warmane devs know about it (probably use bugtracker with actual evidence in code or something so it is confirmed and actually fixed).

You are giving links to wowhead and i dont know if you see that but all of the numbers there are provided for classic 3.4.0 version of the game because this is the new one not the old 3.3.5 core we have here ... use other websites that didnt get updated in years to get correct information. The wowhead website that you provided only gives you hp value (that here is changed anyway) that would apply to this server if it was truly blizzlike without harder content and its called there "legacy". We have here vanilla wotlk not that "new" wotlk that is just retail code with ripped content out of it.

Lets say that you dont have the "A" item and server restarts every 2 weeks and you didnt get "A" item in these two weeks according to your logic in your post then there should be a lot of cases (or never ending cycle) of repeated drops from the same 2 weeks... so you didnt get A but got BCD and that result is the same for each 2 week cycle... (you get BCD or similar without A) now lets look... do we have people that did drop "A" item? Yes so its most likely false. Is there any item that didnt drop in any raid since the beginning of warmane servers if yes then we have problem but i guess thats not the case because we would have threads like that every week on forums.

So summary... try to find a bug in azerothcore or trinity cores github that would make the ICC drops "wrong" report it then it will get fixed here too.. without any code or evidence but pure speculation based on personal sample size will waste devs time so it wont get looked into from any logical standpoint.

"Unlucky"

The day you don't think about it anymore and start playing more for fun than for anything else, you will get what you need.

The drop chance of the boots is 6.3 %: https://aowow.trinitycore.info/?item=50699
20 % for phylactery: https://aowow.trinitycore.info/?item=50365
The proc rate on transmutations is 16 %: https://aowow.trinitycore.info/?spell=66659#contains

It didn't take long at all to happen huh...
https://forum.warmane.com/showthread.php?t=477816

Quote:

---

You linked one of the threads where moderator explains exactly why it doesnt matter that you have big samplesize of drops for your characters.

---

Rolling a dice multiple times doesn't increase your chances, because every event is independent. But you can calculate the probability that a specific number gets rolled. That's why I linked the complementary event. If an item has a dropchance of 30% and it doesn't drop in 50 tries, the chances for this to happen are very small, in fact it's 1.79846504e-8. This either means that we are superduper unlucky, or the algorithm for spawning the dungeon-loot is somewhat bugged.

Quote:

---

The drop chance of the boots is 6.3 %: https://aowow.trinitycore.info/?item=50699
20 % for phylactery: https://aowow.trinitycore.info/?item=50365
The proc rate on transmutations is 16 %: https://aowow.trinitycore.info/?spell=66659#contains

---

I linked the droprates from Wowhead, you linked the droprates from Trinitycore. I don't know what is better, but yours is certainly closer to my experience.

Maybe I should add that sometimes a decimal point can make all the difference. If the number in the loottable is 0.03 instead of 0.3, it can make all the difference. It's still dropping, so you could argue that everything is fine, but obviously that's not the case.

He linked you % droprates from trinitycore because warmane uses trinitycore as base as far as i know... so if you confirmed now that % are close to your experience then i dont even know what to say... when you just confirmed that everything is correct on warmanes end.

3.4.0 is not 3.3.5a
retail wotlk official downgrade is not old vanilla wotlk
Thats why links and version (duh) are different than blizzard official re-releases and thats also why on every addon page you have 2 choices for wotlk downloads.

But i guess i just repeated myself right here and as you pointed out you didnt know.

EDITED CUZ WRONG
Ye calculated wrong here but point still stands you have 1/75 drops on boots which statistically should drop rounded down 6 times according to trinitycore then maybe its time to drop them 25 more times and check if you get 5 more drops of them ... ofc its not gonna be exact thing. Thats why personal datasets are just not reliable source of trying to find a problem

We cant also speak about the fact that in some cases you can roll the dice 90 times and get 0 sixes and in last 10 tries you get all of them rolling always 6.

So like i said in summary unless you dont have a proof that is not just maths on questionable dataset but lines of code or whatever that can prove that warmane and all of the pservers working on trinitycore have wrong droprate scripts or whatever then you are just gonna be writing here pointlessly to the void. They are opensource afterall.

Considering the fact that you didnt even bother to check (or know) simple things like versioning of the game you are playing and that no pservers use retail classic client / server things i guess giving any technical advice or more information would only bring confusion to the topic.

Its not my call but as you see threads like these get created every week apparently with different items... so maybe its time to just play the game and if it drops then it drops. In my circles people say "gitgud".

Ok, first of all the motivation to make a posting like mine is the feeling that something is wrong. You kill a boss and the desired item doesn't drop, ok. You do it again, same thing happens, ok. Third time around you call it RNG. Fourth time around you believe that you are really unlucky. Fifth time around it becomes a running gag. Whenever we go to Festergut, everyone makes the "boots won't drop"-joke. Then the boots don't drop and we all laugh, week after week...

What is the evidence or the so called "proof" that something is wrong? It's actually the result. The proof is that the droprate if far outside mathematical variance.
The chance that the boots with a droprate of 6% don't drop within 50 tries is 0.04533072656, which is certainly higher than 1.79846504e-8. So instead of being unlucky in the neighborhood of homeopathy, it's "just" in the 4.5% range, which is still pretty damn unlucky, especially since we had around 75 tries.

One more thing, which is quite important. Yes, I didn't know the difference in droprate between "Vanilla WotLK" and "Classic", because I couldn't imagine that there can be a difference on such a simple thing. If the timers are slightly different, ok, but the droprate on loot? Give me a break! It is pretty straighforward after all: The boss drops three items from a table where every item has an invididual chance of 6.3%. Note: We can get doubles or even triples on Warmane.

If we do the math on this, the chance that it drops at least once (from 3 items) goes up to 18%. That is certainly more than 6.3%, isn't it. Do you agree?

Im not supposed to be defending or agree with anything/anyone im giving you a view and you do with it what you want. This view is from another person that does dev work not in games but software.

Considering noone even bothers to answer / talk with you about this topic shows that the topic already went to the trashbin because like i said most of them get created for different items every week or month... there is atleast 5 of them. Moderator even linked saved topic that he knew is gonna be created soon. I am just saying this so you know that you are just speaking to the void like me trying to make you understand. Not only you are posting this on forum which is wrong itself because actual checking etc would be done by using bugtracker and people that have same problems would have to upvote yours so actual working dev would take maybe a look or straight up dismiss the claims and move on.

The evidence you provide is nothing else than something that cannot be believed because i can come out with wall of text and do math behind it too so it looks believeable just like yours. Its not proof by any means. Its indicator for dev to maybe check it for 5 min and then after everything looks "fine" he wont look at this problem again. That means problem here you are talking about would either be fixed right there or straight up ignored.

You dont read you repeat yourself just like im gonna repeat section from my first post so you may maybe read it again:

"All of the private servers are based on cores that are typically open source like azerothcore or trinitycore (heavily modified or plain repository copies depending on server) and i doubt that warmane did mess with droprates in ICC raids or droprate mechanism itself because why would they. Because they are open source you can view the code for yourself and if you find something that is wrong or bad let the devs know in githubs and post results here i guess so warmane devs know about it (probably use bugtracker with actual evidence in code or something so it is confirmed and actually fixed)."

No amount of math on forums will fix your problem.

Find bugs in trinitycore if you have the skills to do so ( i doubt it )
Report back your findings to trinitycore github (https://github.com/TrinityCore/TrinityCore)
If you dont find problems there then server / client code here on warmane and ALL OTHER pservers (yes this is not only the one using this core so your chances finding a bug with endgame droprate is exactly like these numbers you like to repeat constantly slim to none) works correctly.

So if everything works correctly software wise then warmane can check their side of things if the problem is there if enough people have same problem for the very same item... and you would need atleast 200 ppl upvoting your post with actual excel spreadsheet and actual "evidence" properly formatted for dev to look into because believe me he needs to fix problems just like you need it fixed and fast.

Bugtracker link is in mainpage (https://www.warmane.com/bugtracker) post and tell your friends if you have them... family and grandma to upvote it and hope that dev wont just change the status to denied or not even bother to do it cuz some are still the same status after 9 years. Ofcourse do that after you check trinitycore XD

There will be no more posts from me to try to give you any logic because after 3 tries trying to make you understand is equal to 4.9406564584124654e-324.

The discussion goes nowhere anyway have fun and goodluck with drops.

Ok, let me give it one last try and I'll explain it without math, so everyone should be able to follow this.

Imagine you are rolling a dice for 100 times and each and every time it comes up 6.

Now you could say this is RNG and you are the unluckiest person on earth, because there is a chance for this to happen. It's a very small chance, but it exists. Yet there is another explanation and this that the dice is weighted and that you are getting cheated. Every professional gambler knows what I am talking about.
The actual results on Warmane are off by a lot, so that RNG is not the most likely explanation anymore. A bug in the random generator is probably more likely.

As bohateruid said, go ahead and prove this "bug" in TrinityCore then (which somehow only seems to affect a handful on players unhappy with not getting this or that piece of loot). You most certainly aren't expecting our Developers to take time away from working on important things because you have an unfounded anecdotal "hunch," after all.

Give me access to the serverlogs and I prove it. There is no incentive to fix it though, because it creates an artificial bottleneck that keeps players playing.

Prove to me that these dice are loaded: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vT1Nsz52hJI

They look like normal dice and there is a (very small) chance to roll these exact sequences.