GotW to proc clearcasting has been completely nerfed into the ground.

Ok so, it seems to be back to normal on Lordaeron as well.
After reading Kovachut's great news just above, i decided to dust off my cat a little bit and give it a spin.
As i'm writing this, i'm currently in an RS25, and i'm glad to say that it seems to be back to 'normal', as in what it used to be pre-nerf.

Now, is it really back to about 82% chance to proc for a 25 man raid with 3 pet classes (so 28+ targets for GotW), i cannot know for sure, we would need further testing or some confirmation from the devs that it has indeed been reverted to its pre-nerf state, but this being said, i'm satisfied by the proc rate as it is now.

We're back in business bois!

I know that this discussion already ended, but I wanted to post a recent find. If someone's curious why the GotW interaction got changed for day or two, they can read the following bug report in github. Please check Aggrend's comment. It's a speculation on my part, but maybe this information initially inspired warmane to review the proc chance from GotW (Bigpwn did mention that a lot of AoE spells got affected, not just the druid buff). Thank God for the logs that convinced them that GotW continued to have a huge proc % in Vanilla. Now, I don't know whether Classic will follow this change, but it was interesting to learn how the interaction was originally intended.

Btw:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aggrend

Its core data is to proc 3.5 times per minute. That results in the 8.75% chance for instants and spells with under 1.5 second cast time. (3.5/(60/1.5)=0.0875).

Instant cast spells like FFF and NG have almost 9% chance to proc CC (though, this might need to include the penalty of a miss since it's a spell, will see). I have work in a few hours, so I prefer to update my threads after that in peace. I want to review the proc chance for GotW based on this formula.
Huge thanks to halesk70 for providing me with a link to that bug report.

I just finished work, and as a result I'm not in my peak form to do math or to think logically. However since I promised I would calculate the proc chance, I am writing my thoughts on this.

I want to get the obvious out of the way:

Quote:

Originally Posted by JamminL

We looked at wc logs from 3.3.5a and it seems in a raid scenario, Gift of the Wild procs 100% of the time (25 targets), sometimes even proccing 2 or 3 - which is obviously a lot higher than the 15% chance and beta behavior.

This statement gives the false presumption that casting GotW in a 25-man group gives a guaranteed proc, which is not how probability works. Even if we imagine a scenario where someone casts the druid buff in a group of 40 people, increasing the probability for a proc almost to 100%, there's still a chance that the proc would whiff. In the past (before the GotW's proc chance got changed), on some random occassions the druid buff whiffed twice in a row. The opposite is also true - buffing players can give a lot of CCs at the same time. It's just like AA-ing a boss 25 or 40 times and getting a bunch of CCs from those attacks.

So, there's no absolute guarantee for a proc by casting GotW once. The question is - what's the actual probability for it, and after reading that post I must admit that I got confused. I googled Aggrend's name and found out that he is a game producer for Classic WoW. He mentioned some kind of penalties concerning AoE spells:

Quote:

It also reduces the chance to proc for Wild Growth and Typhoon because they hit multiple targets, so they have a 75% chance the proc will fail in script.

.
.
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It checks for spells which are instant after that, and massively reduces their chance by 92.4%. So Moonfire and Gift of the Wild have a huge penalty. This number was picked by feel.

which should be ignored because the logs from Vanilla WotLK show higher proc chance than what the quote suggests.

Logs in github:

Spoiler: Show

[00:06:45.743] [Druid#Shinjiru] casts [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470]
[00:06:45.752] [Mage#Greatmerlin]'s [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470] is refreshed by [Druid#Shinjiru]
[00:06:46.115] [Druid#Shinjiru] gains [Clearcasting#spell=16870] from [Druid#Shinjiru]

[00:12:04.228] [Druid#Shinjiru] casts [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470]
[00:12:04.259] [Mage#Greatmerlin]'s [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470] is refreshed by [Druid#Shinjiru]
[00:12:04.776] [Druid#Shinjiru] gains [Clearcasting#spell=16870] from [Druid#Shinjiru]

[00:15:47.132] [Druid#Shinjiru] casts [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470]
[00:15:47.278] [Mage#Greatmerlin] gains [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470] from [Druid#Shinjiru]
[00:15:47.685] [Druid#Shinjiru] gains [Clearcasting#spell=16870] from [Druid#Shinjiru]

[00:39:40.416] [Druid#Shinjiru] casts [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470]
[00:39:40.428] [Mage#Nieeru] gains [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470] from [Druid#Shinjiru]
[00:39:40.821] [Druid#Shinjiru] gains [Clearcasting#spell=16870] from [Druid#Shinjiru]
[00:39:40.821] [Druid#Shinjiru]'s [Clearcasting#spell=16870] is refreshed by [Druid#Shinjiru]

00:09:02.267] [Druid#Caer] casts [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470]
[00:09:02.550] [Druid#Freestyler] gains [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470] from [Druid#Caer]
[00:09:02.741] [Druid#Caer] gains [Clearcasting#spell=16870] from [Druid#Caer]
[00:09:02.741] [Druid#Caer]'s [Clearcasting#spell=16870] is refreshed by [Druid#Caer]

[00:36:26.857] [Druid#Caer] casts [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470]
[00:36:26.988] [Druid#Freestyler]'s [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470] is refreshed by [Druid#Caer]
[00:36:27.378] [Druid#Caer] gains [Clearcasting#spell=16870] from [Druid#Caer]

[00:59:40.304] [Druid#Freestyler] casts [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470]
[00:59:40.321] [Priest#Charovna] gains [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470] from [Druid#Freestyler]
[00:59:40.742] [Druid#Freestyler] gains [Clearcasting#spell=16870] from [Druid#Freestyler]

[00:59:40.992] [Druid#Caer] casts [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470]
[00:59:41.248] [Druid#Freestyler]'s [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470] is refreshed by [Druid#Caer]
[00:59:41.517] [Druid#Caer] gains [Clearcasting#spell=16870] from [Druid#Caer]
[00:59:41.517] [Druid#Caer]'s [Clearcasting#spell=16870] is refreshed by [Druid#Caer]
[00:59:41.523] [Druid#Caer]'s [Clearcasting#spell=16870] is refreshed by [Druid#Caer]

[01:33:52.154] [Druid#Riddly] casts [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470]
[01:33:52.377] [Priest#Keyena] gains [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470] from [Druid#Riddly]
[01:33:52.661] [Druid#Riddly] gains [Clearcasting#spell=16870] from [Druid#Riddly]

[01:40:48.018] [Druid#Caer] casts [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470]
[01:40:48.145] [Shaman#Vexsanity] gains [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470] from [Druid#Caer]
[01:40:48.571] [Druid#Caer] gains [Clearcasting#spell=16870] from [Druid#Caer]

[02:12:35.094] [Druid#Freestyler] casts [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470]
[02:12:35.511] [pet#Phuudhun, $2409] gains [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470] from [Druid#Freestyler]
[02:12:35.832] [Druid#Freestyler] gains [Clearcasting#spell=16870] from [Druid#Freestyler]

[02:29:23.788] [Druid#Caer] casts [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470]
[02:29:24.322] [Valithria Dreamwalker#npc=36789, $2857] gains [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470] from [Druid#Caer]
[02:29:24.553] [Druid#Caer] gains [Clearcasting#spell=16870] from [Druid#Caer]
[02:29:24.556] [Druid#Caer]'s [Clearcasting#spell=16870] is refreshed by [Druid#Caer]

[02:39:59.950] [Druid#Caer] casts [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470]
[02:39:59.950] [Warlock#Xeria] gains [Gift of the Wild#spell=48470] from [Druid#Caer]
[02:40:00.368] [Druid#Caer] gains [Clearcasting#spell=16870] from [Druid#Caer]
[02:40:00.370] [Druid#Caer]'s [Clearcasting#spell=16870] is refreshed by [Druid#Caer]

DarkenedHue's comments in warmane's bug tracker:

Spoiler: Show

[12:28:49.394] Julzz casts Gift of the Wild
[12:28:49.781] Rogerbrown gains Gift of the Wild from Julzz
[12:28:50.201] Julzz gains Clearcasting from Julzz

[18:15:08.954] Hoofarted casts Gift of the Wild
[18:15:09.540] Hoofarted gains Clearcasting from Hoofarted

[18:21:45.611] Hoofarted casts Gift of the Wild
[18:21:46.330] Hoofarted gains Clearcasting from Hoofarted

[18:28:48.586] Hoofarted casts Gift of the Wild
[18:28:49.056] Hoofarted gains Clearcasting from Hoofarted

[18:43:03.933] Hoofarted casts Gift of the Wild
[18:43:04.647] Hoofarted gains Clearcasting from Hoofarted

[18:45:20.182] Hoofarted casts Gift of the Wild
[18:45:20.724] Hoofarted gains Clearcasting from Hoofarted

[18:53:16.223] Hoofarted casts Gift of the Wild
[18:53:16.954] Hoofarted gains Clearcasting from Hoofarted

[18:57:06.589] Hoofarted casts Gift of the Wild
[18:57:07.303] Hoofarted gains Clearcasting from Hoofarted

[19:12:58.851] Hoofarted casts Gift of the Wild
[19:12:59.575] Hoofarted gains Clearcasting from Hoofarted

[19:15:47.994] Hoofarted casts Gift of the Wild
[19:15:48.494] Hoofarted gains Clearcasting from Hoofarted

However, the game producer also mentioned this:

Quote:

Finally, all other spells have a 33% chance to fail in script because they are spells. It just plain procs a lot more for Bears and Cats, by design.

I am not sure whether this is still present. So, imho there are two scenarios for GotW:

1) No 33% penalty:

The proc chance for a CC in a 25-man group with 3 pets would be:

Quote:

1-[1-3.5/(60/1.5)]^28 = 0.92299 or around 92.3%

2) With the 33% penalty:

The proc chance for a CC in a 25-man group with 3 pets would be:

Quote:

1-[1-3.5/(60/1.5)*0.67]^28 = 0.81577 or around 81.6%

Since I don't know which of those is true on warmane, I will try to contact someone from the dev team. If they haven't black listed me for annoying them with my posts in the past, they might answer my question. If they tell me to playtest it myself, I can do it, but the results will not be accurate since RNG will affect them. I won't update my threads before I have a clear answer what's going on.

Btw, if we assume for a bit that FFF has around 8.75% to proc a CC on average, with the 33% penalty the actual probability would fall down to 5.8625%, which was close to my previous estimations.

https://i.imgur.com/GZQYsUH.png
https://i.imgur.com/wkAxhG9.png

Well, this is our answer. I contacted BlueAo (before sending a DM to Midna) and he advised me to playtest it myself. I respect his tip, and it's really a helpful one, but I wanted to have a more definite answer that wouldn't be affected by RNG. This is why I rarely pay attention to logs - just want to make it clear.

Anyway, I am kinda tired from work and not in the mood to update my threads (I am in the mood to play UnderRail :D). I will try to update everything the following days.
I'd like to thank the staff publicly for taking their time to answer my inquiry. Thank you, Midna, Bigpwn, and BlueAo for the open communication!