I've been farming this item for a while, and in 18 runs it has yet to drop.
Based on a drop rate of around 18%, it should take on average 5.5 runs to see a drop. The probability of it not dropping in 18 runs is 2.8%.
It is possible for this to happen, so I want to know if this has dropped on the new core for anyone before I make a bug report (as I believe it is off the loot table).
Thanks for all help!
PS: Posted this in the twinking section as it is mostly twinks who would farm for this item.
I actually believe you answered yourself ;) If the probability of not droping is 2,8% its still possible! I remember when I farmed BRD for cloth epic head. Would have a dropchance of 5%. After 150 runs it hadn't drop. :(
Well, the chance of seeing it drop is 18% on every single try.
The 97.19% you refer to a statistic possibility, not the actual drop chance.
You can end with 1 million runs before seeing it if you are very unlucky (exaggerating).
Yes I know.
My whole reasoning is that the unlikeliness of such an event (18 runs without a drop of a fairly common item) is so high that the loot table may be bugged. I will probably do a few more runs (5 more would mean 23 runs which has a 1% probability of not seeing a drop) before talking to QA.
The main point still stands, has anyone gotten the item recently?