Right now I'm on 29k catches, 25k are 100% from pools, still no turtle. God does not exist.
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If the drop rate is 0.01% from schools, then there's a 99.99% chance you will not get it each cast. Raise that to the power of 25k you see that there's over 8% chance of you being this unlucky.
Bro just use elixir of water walking, how have you not found this out?